It’s Week 13, and the NFL MVP odds race still remains extremely close. Although Jalen Hurts is currently the leader in betting odds, he is far from a runaway favorite, as Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, and Tua Tagovailoa all remain strongly in the mix. With six weeks left in the season, the MVP award is still very much up for grabs.
2023 NFL MVP Odds
Currently at FanDuel Sportsbook, Hurts, Mahomes, Prescott, Jackson, and Tagovailoa are the top five players in NFL MVP odds and the only players with odds shorter than +1000.
Despite all of the discussion about whether a non-QB should win the award this season, the nine players with the shortest MVP odds are all quarterbacks. Christian McCaffrey has the shortest odds of players of other positions, and he’s still a long shot at +3000. Tyreek Hill is on pace to set an NFL receiving yards record, yet he’s +4000 to win the award.
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Jalen Hurts (+150)
- Patrick Mahomes (+350)
- Dak Prescott/Lamar Jackson (+600)
- Tua Tagovailoa (+800)
- Brock Purdy (+1400)
- C.J. Stroud/Trevor Lawrence/Josh Allen (+2000)
- Christian McCaffrey (+3000)
- Tyreek Hill (+4000)
- Jared Goff (+5000)
- Myles Garrett/Justin Herbert/A.J. Brown (+15000)
Why Is Jalen Hurts the MVP Favorite?
Although he is having a terrific season and is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, there is a legitimate argument to be made that Hurts isn’t putting up MVP-caliber numbers. He’s sixth in QBR at 63.5 and has more than twice as many turnovers as he had last season in 15 games.
So why is Hurts the favorite if he isn’t statistically having the best season at the position? Because the MVP is almost always given to quarterbacks on the best team in the AFC or NFC.
The last six winners have all been quarterbacks on a No. 1 seeded team. Since 2010, the only exceptions have been Matt Ryan (2016), Aaron Rodgers (2014), and Adrian Peterson (2012). Of those three players, only Peterson didn’t play for a team with a first-round bye.
Of the top favorites, Prescott is having the best season. He is second in the NFL in QBR and touchdown passes, but the biggest obstacle for him is Dallas’ slim chances of securing the top seed in the NFC. The Cowboys are currently two games behind the Eagles and lose the tiebreaker with the 49ers because they lost the head-to-head matchup back in Week 5.
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The Chiefs and Ravens are among the four teams battling it out for the top seed in the AFC, so both Mahomes and Jackson are firmly in the mix. However, Mahomes’ numbers are down compared to his career averages, and Jackson’s statistics are even less MVP-worthy than Hurts.
There might not be an obvious favorite for MVP at the moment, which is why Hurts, who is on the team with the best record in the NFL, has a leg up over his competition. Still, with six weeks left in the season, the race is far from over.
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