The tool allows us to toggle the tease total to see how a play has performed against various numbers, but I’ll be sticking to the default of 4 points to ensure -110 odds.
The Pacers could very well win this game, never mind cover this number. Tyrese Haliburton continues to get after it, and Indiana has emerged as a disruptor in the East as a result.
More importantly, if every underdog was given 9.5 points this season, underdogs would be a combined 199-107 ATS (65%). Indiana would be 6-3 ATS in those games. If the spread was -9.5 every time the Bucks were playing as favorites this season, they’d be 5-15 ATS in those games.
Couple other notes regarding the Pacers:
- Indiana has covered four-point teasers the last four games vs. Milwaukee.
- Indiana has covered four-point teasers the last four games vs. a divisional opponent.
It would be shocking to see the Lakers upset in this one, but that’s not what we’re worried about here. The Pelicans have been one of the best teams against the spread when playing as an underdog (8-5), whereas the Lakers are just 7-7 ATS when playing as a favorite. On top of that, while only 34% of bets are going to the Pelicans +2 right now, that play has received 46% of the handle — an indicator that sharps are on New Orleans at just +2.
When teasing this up to six points, this becomes an even easier call. If the spread was +6 in every game the Pelicans were playing as dogs, they’d be 10-3 ATS. If the spread was -6 in every game the Lakers were playing as favorites, they’d be 5-8-1 ATS.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.