Cincinnati Bengals QB Jake Browning had a breakout game on MNF in Week 13, and we’re betting on him this week — albeit his legs, not his arm — to kick off our favorite NFL player props for Week 14.
After my colleague, Josh Inglis, went +1.55 units in Week 13 filling in for me, we’re back to building some momentum with two straight positive weeks for our NFL player props — and I’m looking to continue the winning ways with a full 16-game slate of NFL odds this week.
After a mid-season malaise, it’s time to finish the season strong (just like the players I’m wagering on) and the Week 14 odds board is offering some exciting matchups to take advantage of.
Except for the Patriots/Steelers TNF matchup; nobody wins from watching that game… nobody.
So this week I’m back to keeping it strictly Sunday, bringing you my free NFL picks as soon as I see a line I like, with my best NFL Week 14 player props.
Latest NFL prop picks
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
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NFL prop picks for Week 14
OK, maybe I got a little overexcited there — the Lombardi Trophy might be a tad ambitious — but the Bengals might not exactly be a pushover with the 27-year-old rookie under center, as he looked more than competent in leading Cincy to an overtime win at Jacksonville last week.
Going against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 14, I’ve seen enough to feel confident betting the Over on some Jake Browning odds, although I most like the value of him using his legs again on Sunday and topping his rushing yard total of 12.5.
Browning has averaged 23.7 rushing yards in the three games he’s played in since Joe Burrow went down and the Colts, despite playing the league’s highest percentage of zone and pass blitzing at the second-lowest rate, have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to QBs this season, including 13+ yards to the opposing signal caller in eight of 13 games.
The Cincy QB hasn’t run a ton, with just nine rushing attempts to amass these 71 yards over this stretch, but his 7.9 yards/attempt and 8.22 yards after contact are first among quarterbacks from Weeks 11-13. Industry projections sit around 18 yards, ranging as high as 26.3 yards, which gives a little bit of added confidence in Browning getting it done for us on Sunday.
For Canadian bettors, PointsBet Canada is currently hanging this line at 10.5 (albeit juiced at -145), but if you’re not North of the border (or just don’t want to pay that much juice for an extra two yards) you can get the 12.5 at a standard -110 price.
Prop: Jake Browning Over 12.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on December 6 at 8:46 p.m. ET.
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NFL Player props to target
These are yet-to-be released markets I have my eye on. If it comes out at a number/price I like… I’m likely going to bet on it.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Receptions): He terrorizes the slot, and the Chicago Bears have been weak in defending it.
Nico Collins (Receiving yards): He could see a lot of Sauce Gardner; one of the few CBs with the size to contain the red-hot WR.
Elijah Moore (Receiving yards): Was heavily targeted by Joe Flacco last Sunday — if Amari Cooper sits, he should get another heavy target share.
Joshua Dobbs (Pass+rush yards): Don’t want to give up on the Pass-tronaut just yet, especially vs. the sad-sack Raiders and JJ coming back.
NFL Week 14 prop betting card
- Jake Browning Over 12.5 rushing yards (-110)
Last week: 4-2
Season to date: 31-33, -2.93 units
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