Ever since the NFL expanded to a 14-team postseason, the end-of-season playoff race has become even more intriguing. By looking at the NFL playoff odds for the teams on the playoff bubble in the AFC and NFC, who are the best bets to make or miss the postseason?
NFL Playoff Odds Ahead of Week 13
Mathematically, no team has been eliminated yet from making the postseason. Yes, not even the 1-10 Carolina Panthers.
Let’s take a look at my favorite playoff picks, including which teams you should be betting on to miss the postseason.
Seattle Seahawks To Miss Playoffs (-140 at ESPN BET)
Just a few weeks ago, the Seahawks were 5-2, in first place in the AFC West, and looked like a team you could’ve penciled in to make the postseason. But they’ve gone 1-3 since and have three games in a row against the Cowboys, 49ers, and Eagles. After this three-game stretch, they can very likely be 6-8.
The story for Seattle is pretty similar to last season — most of their wins come against bad teams. The biggest difference between this year’s team and the 2022 Seahawks, however, is that Geno Smith hasn’t been the same quarterback. His QBR is down from 62.8 to 50.1, and after he was seventh in EPA + CPOE last season, he’s 18th among all quarterbacks in 2023.
The Seahawks are big underdogs to the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football this week. If they get blown out, their odds of missing the playoffs could move to -200 territory.
Green Bay Packers To Make Playoffs (-105 at ESPN BET)
The Packers are just half a game behind the Vikings for the final playoff spot in the NFC, and for the rest of the season, they seem like a much better value bet to make the playoffs.
The difference between these two teams simply comes down to the quarterback position. While Joshua Dobbs has fallen back to reality with two really bad games in a row, Jordan Love has made really great strides in the second half of the season.
- Jordan Love Weeks 1-6:
- EPA/play (expected points added): 0.038 (17th)
- CPOE (completion percentage over expected): -7.1 (32nd)
- Jordan Love Weeks 7-12:
- EPA/play: 0.121 (6th)
- CPOE: 1.4 (7th)
Now that is quarterback development! Not only is Love playing much better, but the Packers also have the third-easiest schedule the rest of the way, with games left against the Panthers, Bears, and Giants.
Buffalo Bills To Make Playoffs (+400 at DraftKings)
I can’t quit on the Bills. They might be 6-6 and currently 10th in the AFC, but they’re simply too good to be counted out until they’re mathematically eliminated.
Despite their record, Buffalo has the fourth-best point differential in the NFL. All six of their losses this season have been by one score, and only two of their wins have been by less than seven points.
The Bills have a really challenging schedule remaining, with games left against the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Dolphins. However, Miami could be resting their starters in Week 18, and Buffalo is good enough to beat anyone.
Also, maybe they’re due for some regression after being one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL this season.
Buffalo is on a bye in Week 13, so it’s unlikely their odds change much in the next week, but I can’t pass up on them here.
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