We’ll end the midweek fixtures with two games on Thursday that should be interesting in their own right.
When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for Thursday?
EPL Betting: Thursday 12/7/23
Newcastle at Everton (2:30 ET)
Newcastle Moneyline (+130)
Newcastle have played very well in their last two league matches since the international break. Their squad has been weakened by injuries and suspensions, but it hasn’t hindered them thus far.
Everton are coming off of a win themselves, a 1-0 victory over Nottingham Forest. Other than the fact it was an away victory, this wasn’t too impressive of a win. They had only 39% of the possession, and the expected goals (xG) were even at 0.7 apiece, according to FBRef.
We know that Everton are in a relegation place only because of a points deduction for breaching the financial rules of the Premier League. Overall, they’ve been solid this year. But the area where their form is relegation level is at home — they’ve picked up just four points in seven matches at Goodison Park this season.
In those two wins in the last two matchweeks, Newcastle won the xG battle by exactly 2.4-0.5 in each match. That came in games against Chelsea and Manchester United, not the easiest of games despite both of those teams’ struggles.
Newcastle currently have the third-best xG differential in the league. They should be able to win this match against Everton, and getting +130 odds on that happening is good enough to warrant a bet.
West Ham at Tottenham (3:15 ET)
Tottenham Moneyline (-140)
We’ll close out the week with a London derby between fierce rivals. This fixture has seen some wild games over the past few seasons, so it should be an entertaining match.
Tottenham have gone through a rough patch in their form lately. They haven’t won a Premier League match in their last four tries. They did get a very credible draw away to Manchester City last time out and should get a boost going into this match.
They had to play with two full-backs at center-back due to injuries and suspensions. Cristian Romero will return from his ban and can slot right into center-back, giving Spurs more defensive solidity than they’ve had in their past few games.
West Ham have gone three games unbeaten in the league. They sit comfortably mid-table in ninth and are in no danger of relegation. In terms of xG differential, they are actually just 13th.
Tottenham also haven’t been excellent in terms of xG — they have a -0.9 xG differential on the season. That is skewed somewhat by a match against Chelsea where they went down to nine men and lost the xG battle 4.1-0.9. Then on Sunday against Man City, they were outdueled 2.6-0.5 in xG despite drawing 3-3, but again they played with a makeshift defensive line.
Spurs are still a bit injured but should have enough to see off the Hammers. Giovani Lo Celso seems to have found some form — scoring in each of his last two games. That could make up for some of the attacking talent that is missing.
Tottenham have the better team and are at home for this match, making this line feel a bit too short at -140.
Son Heung-Min to Score (+125): Son has been on fire to start the season, scoring nine goals in 14 matches on just 4.9 xG. That is usually something we’d expect to regress, but since 2017-18, Son has scored 94 goals on just 67.1 xG. He’s proven he can out-produce his xG over a large sample.
Tottenham have not been awarded a penalty in the league yet this season. When they get one, it will likely be Son taking it as he’s a senior member of the team who’s an excellent goal scorer. He’s already third in the league in goals, and his goal-scoring chances would obviously benefit from being Spurs first-choice penalty taker.
Kieran Trippier to Assist (+290): Newcastle right-back Kieran Trippier is known for being excellent on set pieces, and it’s paid off for the Magpies this season.
Trippier is tied for the league lead in assists with seven. He’s also second in the league in expected assists, so this isn’t a fluke. In addition to free-kick duties, he’ll take corner kicks for Newcastle, meaning he’s always one good delivery away from an assist in any match.
Getting nearly three-to-one odds on this bet is too good to pass up in a match where Newcastle are the better side.
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