EPL Betting Preview Including Predictions and Picks
WagerTalk Premier League handicapper Kevin Dolan presents his Premier League prediction preview heading into December 9-10 matches. He gives betting previews for key matches including Arsenal vs Aston Villa and Chelsea at Everton. Which teams is he looking to pick up points and which will have goals being scored? Read his betting preview now!
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Arsenal vs Aston Villa | December 9 | 12:30pm ET
Arsenal +110 | Aston Villa +235 | Draw +270
Aston Villa put the league on official notice on Wednesday night as they overcame champions Manchester City 1-0 at Villa Park to move into the top three.
That’s something they’ll want to repeat here on Saturday against the EPL’s #1 team in Arsenal this season, a team who were extremely fortunate to come away with all three points against relegation-battling Luton on Tuesday.
Arsenal got out of jail with a late Declan Rice header which seemed to come after the noticed amount of injury time, a fact that Luton fans were livid with after the game.
That result aside, Arsenal have been the league’s best team this year overall with a W11, D3, L1 record, and posting an even better W5, D1, L1 record away from home this year also. A chance to extend those records and widen that gap between themselves and the rest of the chasing pack in the Premier League title race will be firmly on Mikel Arteta’s mind ahead of this one.
However, that will likely be easier said than done as Aston Villa have been absolutely superb at home this season, going a red-hot 7-0-0 across their seven games at Villa Park this year, and sit only behind Liverpool (the only other 7-0-0 team in the league) in terms of expected goals differential at home this season as well.
Take Aston Villa on the +0.5 handicap line on Saturday to continue their excellent home form with another solid result against league-leaders Arsenal this weekend.
Premier League Prediction: Aston Villa +0.5 (-130)
Chelsea at Everton | December 10 | 9:00am ET
Chelsea +120 | Everton +225 | Draw +250
After what appeared to be a case of Mauricio Pochettinho finally getting a handle on things at Chelsea over the last few weeks, generating some pretty positive results overall heading into Wednesday night’s game against Manchester United which saw them go off as road favorites, the Red Devils weren’t to be denied as both Anthony and Scott McTominay had terrific games, putting the Blues to the sword in raiding fashion down that right-hand side.
Chelsea will look to respond here on Sunday in yet another road appearance against Everton, but with just three wins away from home all season, there are definitely some question marks as to whether Chelsea can accomplish that feat.
Everton for their part have yet to face Newcastle at the time of writing on Thursday, but have been woeful at home this season, ranking 18th in the league overall on home form compared with 5th on the road.
However, both of these teams have defied the data this season as Everton have been much better at home, boasting a massive +1.08 xGD/90 increase over their road numbers this year, while Chelsea have consistently been one of the top performers in the league away from home this season, ranking 2nd in offensive xG, 3rd in xGD, and 5th in defensive xGA.
Both teams may find this an extremely tricky test to navigate on Sunday and we’re backing the outright draw as a result in what should be a tight game over at Goodison Park this weekend.
Premier League Prediction: Draw (+250)
Manchester City vs Luton | December 10 | 9:00am ET
Manchester City -625 | Luton +1430 | Draw +740
Manchester City dropped points yet again on Wednesday night, the 4th straight time they’ve done so in the league, as they continue to flounder and find themselves currently six points adrift of top-placed Arsenal in the league table.
Obviously, that’s nothing new for City as they managed to overcome an even bigger deficit last season, but there are definitely some concerning signs as without Kevin DeBruyne and Rodri in the lineup, Manchester City look like half the team that won the treble last season.
A huge highlight of that fact was that Manchester City created 0.00 xG after the 11th minute of Wednesday night’s game as top goalscorer Erling Haaland went MIA.
That’s a major concern, and it’ll become an even bigger concern for City should they slip up again on Sunday against newly promoted Luton, a team that was arguably very unlucky not to come away with a result against Arsenal on Tuesday.
With Rodri now back in the lineup for City however, a huge boost to their defensive midfield area and playmaking ability, we’re loathe to step in front of Manchester City here. But neither can we back them to cover a massive -2.25 handicap line away from home, an absolutely huge line considering all of City’s recent mis-steps in the league, along with Luton’s dogged home form as well.
Instead, we’re going to pivot towards the total here and take the Both Teams to Score – Yes prop at +125. Manchester City have kept just two clean sheets across their last ten Premier League games and even with Rodri back in the lineup, Luton showed on Tuesday night that they definitely have the ability to punish teams, even elite ones, from set-pieces and deadball situations in games.
Take the Both Teams to Score – Yes prop on Sunday in the matchup between Manchester City and Luton.
Premier League Prediction: Both Teams to Score – Yes (+125)
Stoppage Time | Weekly Soccer Preview
Join Carmine Bianco, Kevin Dolan, Nick Borrman, Bryan Power and Pavlos Laguretos for Stoppage Time every Thursday breaking down betting angles across the European soccer schedule including possibly matches in Premier League!
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