Tottenham have a 24 per cent chance of finishing in the Premier League’s top four this season as they consider the future of manager Antonio Conte.
According to Opta, Spurs are predicted to finish in sixth place at the end of the season, with just a 23.9 per cent chance of finishing in the top four.
Ahead of Newcastle’s win at Nottingham Forest, after which Jamie Carragher had warned that Manchester United were being dragged back into the top-four battle, Spurs’ chance of taking a top-four berth had been rated as high as 31%.
But following a torrid weekend, in which Spurs let a two-goal lead slip late on at Southampton to draw 3-3 to spark an extraordinary outburst from manager Conte, Opta now calculate that the two teams below them in the table – Newcastle and Liverpool – both have a higher chance of securing a spot at Europe’s top table this season, due to the two games in hand they have over Spurs.
Tottenham’s draw at Southampton sparked a furious rant from manager Conte in his post-match press conference, claiming his players are “selfish” who “cannot play under pressure and stress”.
What is the prediction model based on?
- The prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Stats Perform’s team rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
- The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times.
- By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
With Conte facing an uncertain future, Tottenham chairman Daniel Levy faces a dilemma over whether to let the Italian go with just 10 games remaining for Spurs this season.
In his post-match rant at Southampton, Conte predicted that Spurs could even finish lower than sixth, if they show the same kind of mentality for the rest of the season.
“There are 10 games to go and some people think we can fight. Fight for what with this spirit, this attitude, this commitment? What? For seventh, eighth, 10th place? I am not used to this position.
“I’m really upset and everyone has to take their responsibility. Not only the club, the manager and the staff, the players have to be involved in this situation because it is time to change this situation if Tottenham want to change.
“If they want to continue in this way, they can change the manager, a lot of managers, but the situation cannot change. Believe me.”
April 3: Everton (A) – Premier League, kick-off 8pm, live on Sky Sports
April 8: Brighton (H) – Premier League, kick-off 3pm
April 15: Bournemouth (H) – Premier League, kick-off 3pm
April 23: Newcastle (A) – Premier League, kick-off 2pm, live on Sky Sports
April 27: Man Utd (H) – Premier League, kick-off 8.15pm
April 30: Liverpool (A) – Premier League, kick-off 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
May 6: Crystal Palace (H) – Premier League, kick-off 3pm
May 13: Aston Villa (A) – Premier League, kick-off 3pm
May 20: Brentford (H) – Premier League, kick-off 3pm
May 28: Leeds (A) – Premier League, kick off 3pm
Analysis from Sky Sports News reporter Michael Bridge:
“What a few days at Tottenham Hotspur Football Club.
“Despite Conte’s rant, he wasn’t expecting to be sacked and what is emerging now is that could be very possible.
“He doesn’t think he’s picking on individuals when he’s talking about this, when he is criticising certain things about the club, but he feels it is the culture, which is something he has mentioned many times before in press conferences.
“Saturday’s outburst felt a lot worse than we’ve seen before from Conte. It was damning.
“This is going to move quickly. It’s going to develop and ramp up very quickly as Tuesday goes on.”
Is Conte actually Spurs’ best chance of finishing in the top four?
Sky Sports’ Alan Smith on Sky Sports News:
“You’ve now got to look at the relationship between Conte and the players.
“If it is broken, you have to make a change but will a new manager make enough difference in the remaining matches?
“Could Antonio Conte, with his experience and knowhow, get them back into the Champions League if he stayed? Who do you put in there if you don’t keep Conte?
“Spurs certainly need to liven up that dressing room and the training ground. It’s taken a battering; the morale is really low and they’ve got to find a way of making that better.
“Can they do it under Conte? It doesn’t look likely.”