Home » WTA Stuttgart Tips, Preview & Analysis | Our Picks For This Week’s Tennis – livetennis.com

WTA Stuttgart Tips, Preview & Analysis | Our Picks For This Week’s Tennis – livetennis.com

An absolutely stacked field takes to the lesser spotted indoor clay in Stuttgart for a fantastic WTA500 event. Can anyone dethrone Iga Swiatek as she looks to dominate the clay in 2023?

The Pole has had a good 2023 by any standards, except those that she set for herself in 2022. The gap that she established at the top of the world rankings has shrunk already and she has a lot of points to defend, including 500 here in Stuttgart.

This is a pretty unique tournament with the indoor conditions, but a red clay playing surface. So therefore it suits a lot of different players. Those indoor specialists who like calm, consistent conditions to play in, but also clay court specialists who like a slower surface. Great movement is required here.

Previous champions that demonstrate the skills required include Angelique Kerber who went back-to-back here and way back in the day Martina Hingis won this four times in five years. However, Maria Sharapova was also dominant here, winning three-in-a-row, showing that movement isn’t the beall-and-end-all.

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WTA Stuttgart Betting Tips

Aryna Sabalenka 1pt @ 11/2 at Bet365

Ons Jabeur 1pt @ 12/1 at Bet365

Paula Badosa 0.5pt @ 25/1 at Bet365

Event In Focus: WTA Stuttgart

The clay court swing brings a fresh perspective to the analysis as we get to dig into some clay court numbers for the key protagonists on tour. It goes without saying that playing on clay is a very different feel to playing on the hard courts so it is important to dig a little deeper and combine current form with historic clay form, as most top players won’t have played on the surface since last year’s French Open.

The clay court season for the women feels different to the men as well. There are even fewer opportunities to play on the surface. There were 3 ATP events on clay last week, as well as a four-event Golden Swing in South America for the men. Therefore the clay specialists really need to take advantage of this time of year.

Ranking & 2023 Form Analysis

Iga Swiatek sweeps the board across all the metrics, except having the best win percentage on tour, that honour goes to Aryna Sabalenka at the moment in 2023. The big two are a little way ahead of the rest of the field here.

In terms of games won further down the list of players Qinwen Zheng is worth keeping an eye on. Her win percentage is fairly average, but she is holding serve very well and obviousl losing tight matches and winning convincingly. Barbora Krejcikova is probably looking forward to the clay as the former Roland-Garros champion has been in good form on the hard courts.

Daria Kasatkina should be an interesting one. Her clay ELO rating is excellent but her 2023 form has been generally really poor. There were signs of life in Charleston though so perhaps the clay will spark the Russian into life once more.

Emma Raducanu needs more matches. Her actual play appears to be ok, though obviously nowhere near her US Open winning levels. However, her problem is now that her ranking means that she will encounter difficult matches early on in all the tournaments she enters.

Career Clay Court Analysis

It is here on the clay that Swiatek really stands out. In her whole WTA career she has not yet lost 10 matches on the dirt. Her games won % of 129 is far beyond elite, and even though she doesn’t have a particularly powerful serve, she holds serve more often than anyone else by a distance.

Again, it is a small sample size, but Qinwen Zheng is carrying impressive early data on the clay. Chinese players don’t usually adapt that well to clay, given the lack of exposure on that surface in their development, but Zheng seems to have taken to it well so far.

Other good exponents in their career are Paula Badosa, who looks to be showing signs of improvement of late, Daria Kasatkina, and Coco Gauff. The American feels like she’s going through a loss of confidence so let’s see if she can use the springboard of the clay season to find some heart in her game.

Form & Stuttgart Record

Unsurprisingly, it is the top seeds that are displaying the greatest form levels. Ons Jabeur’s title run in Charleston has really boosted her form, Caroline Garcia appears to be maintaining a pretty decent level of form as well, but it is Elena Rybakina with the best form in the field, albeit she lost her last match convincingly to Petra Kvitova (a late withdrawal here).

This is a popular tournament with the top players so it is no surprise to see that many of them played here last year. It was a Swiatek vs Sabalenka final, and that is a strong possibility again this year. Indeed, Sabalenka has made consecutive finals.

However, the amount of grey colouring on the visual shows how much the top of the WTA has changed quite quickly. The likes of Ash Barty, Simona Halep, Sofia Kenin, Elena Svitolina, Naomi Osaka, and Angelique Kerber, who were top seeds in 2021 and 2019 have all subsided from the top of the game for different reasons. Only Karolina Pliskova has played three consecutive tournaments here, but has a mixed record.

WTA Stuttgart Draw

Stuttgart has a 8-seed, 28-person draw. The top 4 seeds will be given a bye into the second round.

WTA Stuttgart Betting Tips

As we have seen throughout the analysis, Iga Swiatek is clearly the one to beat. However, she is priced up as an odds-on shot against a field that could barely be more difficult. A tricky encounter with Qinwen Zheng is Swiatek’s first match on clay this season, and we have also seen how well Qinwen can play on the surface. Therefore the value has to be elsewhere.

Aryna Sabalenka 1pt @ 11/2 at Bet365

It was mentioned already that the Belarusian has been to consecutive finals here. It was a shock when she lost in the quarter-finals of Miami to Sorana Cirstea and perhaps that will steel Sabalenka’s focus somewhat. If she reaches the final, I give her a very good chance of defeating Swiatek given their current states of mind.

Ons Jabeur 1pt @ 12/1 at Bet365

The Tunisian looked back to somewhere close to her best in Charleston and that boost of confidence, and early move onto clay, could really benefit her here.

She was serving a great number of aces on the green clay and whilst that won’t necessarily transfer over to the slower red clay, the indoor conditions will certainly require accurate and powerful serving.

Paula Badosa 0.5pt @ 25/1 at Bet365

Badosa hasn’t been at the peak of her powers for a good while now, but I have seen some improvement in recent weeks. The Spaniard has a tough draw here, but then all draws are tough in this field. If she can bring her best clay court form into this part of the season then there is a potential for Badosa to get back up into the top ten.